Ukrainian Antarctic journal

No 14 (2015): Ukrainian Antarctic Journal
Articles

Possibilities of long-range forecast of weather conditions over the Antarctic peninsula

V. E. Tymofeyev
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 37 Prospekt Nauky, Kyiv, 03028
Published January 12, 2016
Keywords
  • El Nino-Southem Oscillation,
  • air temperature,
  • climate,
  • atmospheric circulation,
  • seasonal forecasts

Abstract

The paper analyzes the impact of the  El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the climatic conditions of the Antarc­tic Peninsula via spatial correlations, as well as studies into atmospheric circulation. Change in the  El Niño-Southern Oscillation to the great extent determines regional climate trends. In order to improve methods for seasonal forecasts, the use of the  El Niño 1-2 index eastern Pacific Ocean is recognized, based on synchronous and asynchronous correla­tions. Scheme for Academik Vernadsky station is presented. During the warm phase anticyclogenesis is typically devel­oping in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic, and in the years of La Nina — cyclogenesis is predominant. It is noted that each manifestation of  El Niño events are unique, with different localization of pressure systems in the Antarctic Penin­sula’ the peninsula is located at the boundary of the area of influence of different centers of atmospheric action. The results can be used to improve understanding of atmospheric mechanisms of regional climate variability and improving the  methods of weather forecasting.