Ukrainian Antarctic Journal

No 8 (2009): Ukrainian Antarctic Journal
Articles

Possibilities of long-range forecast of weather conditions over the Antarctic peninsula

V. F. Martazinova
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv
V.S. Maderich
Institute of mathematical machines and systems problems of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv
V. Y. Tymofeyev
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv
E. K. Ivanova
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv
Published December 16, 2009
Keywords
  • long-range forecast,
  • two-month quasi-periodicity,
  • atmospheric circulation,
  • similarity of atmospheric processes,
  • average monthly temperature,
  • ice cover
  • ...More
    Less
How to Cite
Martazinova, V. F., Maderich, V., Tymofeyev, V. Y., & Ivanova, E. K. (2009). Possibilities of long-range forecast of weather conditions over the Antarctic peninsula. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal, (8), 413-427. https://doi.org/10.33275/1727-7485.8.2009.473

Abstract

Developed by us in 1998 the method of long-range weather forecast for the moderate latitudes of Northern hemisphere is based on two-month similarity of atmospheric circulation which is well revealed by the traditional method of analogues of one season. That is why similarity of atmospheric processes in the non-tropical latitudes of Southern hemisphere was also explored by the method of traditional analogue. Similarity between the processes of successive days on the fixed territory taking into account the coincidence of all geographical coordinates allowed to set in Southern hemisphere two-month quasi-periodicity of large-scale and consequently regional atmospheric circulation. Taking into account found out the period of quasi-periodicity of regional atmospheric circulation of the Antarctic Peninsula near 60 days in a summer period and near 70 days in a winter period the forecast scheme of anomaly of average monthly temperature of air is developed. The forecast scheme of anomaly of average monthly air temperature for the area of Akademik Vernadsky Station is developed with monthly earliness with the aim of equations of linear regression. The anomaly of average monthly air temperature of initial month is used in equation of linear regression as prediktor. The estimation of forecast scheme was executed on dependent material of separate years and showed success of the offered method of forecast of average monthly air temperature for Akademik Vernadsky Station. For the improvement of estimation of extreme values of temperature above the Antarctic Peninsula and at Akademik Vernadsky Station the scheme of long-range forecast of average monthly air temperature was complemented by auxiliary equations, that allow to calculate extreme values. On the whole it is possible to mark that found out atmospheric circulation conformities of near two-month quasi-periodicity for the moderate latitudes of Southern hemisphere can be basis for development of method of long-range forecast of atmospheric circulation and weather conditions for the territory of Antarctic Continent.

References

  1. Atlas Antarktiki [Atlas of Antarctica], v.2. (1969). Gidrometeoizdat. (In Russian).
  2. Baur, F. (1958). Dolgosrochny`j prognoz pogody`. Voprosy` predskazaniya pogody` [Long-term weather forecast. Problems of weather forecasting]. Gidrometeoizdat, 262-268. (In Russian).
  3. Voskresenskij, A.I., & Chukanin, K.I. (1980). Osnovny`e cherty` cirkulyacii atmosfery` nad Antarktidoj [The main features of atmospheric circulation over the Antarctic]. In: Issledovaniya klimata Antarktidy`. Gidrometeoizdat. 170-176. (In Russian).
  4. Dy`dina, L.A., Rabcevich, S.V., Ry`zhakov, L.Yu., & Saviczkij, G.B. (1976). Formy` atmosfernoj cirkulyacii v Yuzhnom polusharii [Kinds of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere]. Trudy` AANII, 330, 5-16. (In Russian).
  5. Lorentz, E. Nekotory`e aspekty` predskazuemosti povedeniya atmosfery`[Some aspects of the predictability of the atmosphere’s behaviour]. In: Dolgosrochny`e i srednesrochny`e prognozy` pogody`. Moscow, Mir, 7-10. (In Russian).
  6. Maderych, V., Brovchenko, I., Koshebutskyi, V., & Terletska, K. (2009). Modeliuvannia tsyrkuliatsii ta protsesiv formuvannia hlybynnykh vod v mori Vedella [Modelling the circulation and processes of deep waters’ formation in the Weddell Sea]. Tezy IV Mizhnarodnoi Antarktychnoi konferentsii "III Mizhnarodnyi Poliarnyi rik 2007-2008: rezultaty ta perspektyvy", Kyiv, Ukraina, 2009. (In Ukrainian).
  7. Martazinova, V.F. (1987). K voprosu ob ispol`zovanii analogovy`x polej meteoe`lementov dlya prognoza [To the problem of using analogous fields of meteoelements for the forecast]. Trudy` UkrNIGMI, 219, 37-42. (In Russian).
  8. Martazinova, V.F., & Sologub, T.A. (1987). Opredelenie kvaziperiodichnosti atmosferny`x processov na Severnom polusharii s pomoshh`yu metoda "plavayushhij analog" [Determining the quasiperiodicity of atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemisphere with the help of the Floating analogue method]. Trudy` UkrNIGMI, 219, 42-46. (In Russian).
  9. Martazinova, V., Tymofeiev, V., & Ivanova, O. (2009). Mozhlyvosti dovhostrokovoho prohnozuvannia pohodnykh umov nad Antarktychnym pivostrovom [The possibilities of long-term forecasting of weather conditions over the Antarctic Peninsula]. Tezy IV Mizhnarodnoi Antarktychnoi konferentsii "III Mizhnarodnyi poliarnyi rik 2007-2008: rezultaty ta perspektyvy", Kyiv, Ukraina, 2009. (In Ukrainian).
  10. Mul`tanovskij, B.P. (1915). Vliyanie centrov dejstviya atmosfery` na pogodu Evropejskoj Rossii v teploe vremya goda [The effect of centers of action of the atmosphere on the weather of the European Russia in the warm season]. Geofizicheskij sbornik, 2(3), 73-97. (In Russian).
  11. Nemajes, D. (1958). Tridczatidnevny`e prognozy` [Thirty-day-long forecasts]. Voprosy` predskazaniya pogody`. Gidrometeoizdat, 192-193. (In Russian).
  12. Ry`zhakov, L.Yu. (1977). O sezonny`x osobennostyax ustojchivosti i povtoryaemosti form cirkulyacii Yuzhnogo polushariya [About seasonal specifics of the stability and repeatability of the forms of circulation in the Southern Hemisphere]. Byulleten` SAE`, 94, 5-10. (In Russian).
  13. Maderich, V., Brovchenko, V., Koshebutskyy, & Terletska, K. (2007). Application of 3D Lagrangian multi-size sediment transport model to the simulation of dense water cascading due to winter shelf convection and turbidity. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 9, 07776, 2007.
  14. Martazinova, V. (2005). The Classification of Synoptic Patterns by Method of Analogs. Journal of Environment and Engineering , 7, 61–65.
  15. Martazinova, V., & Tymofeyev, V.E. (2007). Interdecadal changes of tropospheric circulation in Southern extratropics during the recent warming in the Antarctic Peninsula. The 10th International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Science, 10th ISAES, Santa Barbara, Geological Survey and The National Academies, USGS OF-2007-1047. Ext. Abs.067, 2007.
  16. Martazinova, V.F., Tymofeyev, V.E., & Ivanova, E.K. (2008). Tropospheric circulation in Austral extratropics during the recent warming episode in the Antarctic peninsula. Abs. SCAR/IASC. Open Science conference, St. Petersburg, Russia, 2008.
  17. Teisserencede Bort, J. (1884). Etude sur l'hiver de 1879–1880 et recherches sur la position des centres d'action de l'atmosphere dans les hivers anormaux. Bureau Centr. Meteorologique de France. Annales, 4, 17–62.
  18. Turner, J., Colwell, S., Marshall, G., Lachlan-Cope, T., Carleton, A., Jones, P., Lagun, V., Reid, F., & Iagovkina, S. (2005). Antarctic climate during the last 50 years. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 279–294.
  19. Sherwood, C. R. (2000). Numerical model of frazil ice and suspended sediment concentration and formation of sediment laden ice in the Kara Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research,105(C6), 14061–14080.
  20. Smedsrud, L. H. (2002). A model for entrainment of sediment into sea ice by aggregation between frazil-ice crystals and sediment grains. Journal of Glaciology, 48(160), 51–61.